I’m not an epidemiologist, but then again, neither are any of the state governors who are making the decisions for us. I dare say, having taken the time to educate myself on the subject, my knowledge of COVID is at least as great at theirs. It definitely would seem to be superior to that of most teachers’ unions. In the same way a parent doesn’t have to be an automotive safety engineer to be able to tell their kids to buckle up, you don’t have to be a doctor to point out some logical conclusions that can be drawn from publicly available data and knowledge. So with that in mind, let me tell you that I’m confident that we will see and end to the COVID-19 crisis this year (2021). We may even reach that point in time to enjoy an Independence Day Bar-B-Q with our family, all our family, grandma and grandpa included. COVID will still be a valid concern, but no more so than the seasonal flu, hepatitis or meningitis. This is for a few reasons. Almost every person on earth has an ancestor that survived the Black Plague, and/or countless other pandemics. We have made quantum leaps in science since the last pandemic and can bring them online with unheard of speed. Most of all, in the end, a combination of all these things working synegistically will create a reality that even the most ardent blue-state lockdown artist cannot deny. We approach a tipping point that will create a momentum towards normalcy that the technocrats won’t be able to resist.
It is the nature of diseases, even horrible diseases like the Black Plague to hit, do damage, and and burn themselves out, only to reappear occasionally after great lengths of time. Most, if not all, eventually fade into the background noise along with myriad other chronic threats to humanity. Modern medicine has answered the call with new therapeutics, and thankfully, we made a decision that bureaucratic red tape that inhibits medical breakthroughs should be largely be dispensed with. Thanks to that, we have gone from virtually no treatment options, to one treatment option (that unfortunately was politicized near to death), to several that are used alone and in combination. There are now three vaccines available in the US to fight COVID-19, and several other countries have developed their own. Even pharmaceutical companies that don’t yet have an approved vaccine can still cash in by renting out their production lines to companies that do.
Those elites who believe in the fantasy of Utopia and the notion that we can get there if we plebs would just fall in line and follow their program, have no wish to see the COVID crisis end, ever. If they can just control us enough they think, then their dreams of a perfect society with them on top will be realized. Ultimately, the end of the COVID crisis will be out of their hands, as long as there are enough people in the world left who value freedom more than temporary security. Reality will yank the rug out from under the elites. Lockdowns, the favored response of these Utopians have proven impractical and ineffective as a long-term strategy and even the WHO does not recommend them as such.
“Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID 19 transmission by limiting contact between people.
However, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop. Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labor for subsistence.” – the WHOThe World Health Organization, Dec 31, 2020 Update.
So, lockdowns are unsustainable because of their many negative unintended consequences.
Over time we can see that countries in a constant state of flux, that loosen and tighten restrictions according to cases see a series of spikes. Graphs charting cases and deaths in these countries look jagged, the numbers of cases and deaths merely being shifted. Sweden, which has maintained the same low-impact approach throughout, regardless of case numbers has fewer peaks and valleys. Now with vaccines, when the numbers go down, they can stay down. Vaccines will put a ceiling on the number of cases, and if administered strategically according to risk factors, may well drive deaths to near zero. With a disease that hurts the elderly and infirmed population so disproportionately, giving the vaccine to those people first could reduce deaths disproportionately. Smart states and countries are doing this. Foolish states will pass over the more vulnerable and prioritize less vulnerable members in pursuit of “vaccine equity”. We should not be in this to reduce cases, not when the majority of cases in the lower age groups do not end up in deaths or even critical illness. The object of all the restrictions, the mask-wearing, social and emotional sacrifices we were told on the onset of the pandemic, was to save lives. If we get to the point where lives are being saved, and the deaths bottom out, logically and morally, that should constitute success.
My prediction is that as the numbers of vaccinated grow, the combination of people immune through vaccines and naturally immune through contracting the disease will get us to the level of herd immunity. Even before Dr. Fauci declares “herd immunity obtained” many states will likely already be there. There is probably a magic number, some percentage of vaccinated, that will serve as a tipping point and when that number is reached in a state, that state will start to see days of no COVID deaths, those days will turn into weeks. There is another magic number: That number is the number of people who want the vaccine. At the time of this being written, the demand for the vaccine currently outstrips the supply. That will change. Once the number of people who want the vaccine, and have had all the doses for a week or two become equal, at that point all restrictions, ALL OF THEM should be lifted. The reason is simple and comes in the form of a question. At that point, when everyone who wanted the vaccine has gotten one and someone in authority suggests that restrictions should remain in place, or that you should continue to wear a mask, the question we should all be prepared to ask them is: “Who would I be doing it for?” That’s not one they’ll have a good answer for. They might try and say that it’s for someone’s grandma or aging parent. And then, you you’ll be able to tell them that everyone you know has either been vaccinated, had the disease, or has made peace with the fact they might get it. Their assertion of their right not to get vaccinated when they have the ability to do so at this time should not come at the expense of anybody else’s right live life normally. Nature and science will kill the virus, reality and common sense prevailing will kill the crisis.
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